We are less than 24 hours away from Election Day when the British people decide on their European representatives for the next five years, and a third of England (including all London local authorities) selects who they want to run their local services. There are powerful forces pulling the electorate in multiple directions in both of these votes, with European and local issues seldom the primary deciding factor in where that “X” is ultimately placed on the ballot paper.

The Cicero Elections Team has a wealth of analysis and real-votes tracking in store following tomorrow’s results. We’ll know how the local elections panned out by Friday morning and how the new EU Parliament will look by Sunday night – but for those who can’t wait, we’ve collated the latest polls here.

Final EU polling:

Survation: CON 23%, LAB 27%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 32%, GRN 4%
Opinium: CON 21%, LAB 25%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 32%, GRN 6%
TNS: CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 31%
ComRes:  CON 20%, LAB 27%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 33%, GRN 6%
ICM: CON 26%, LAB, 29%, UKIP 25%, LDEM 7%, GRN 6%
YouGov: CON 22%, LAB 26%, UKIP 27%, LDEM 9%, GRN 10%

Cicero Elections prediction (changes from 2009):
UKIP 30% (+14),  LAB 27% (+11), CON 23% (-5), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 6% (-2) OTH 6% (-11)

Each change for the first four parties is linked to a blog written by the Team on the electoral strategy and implications of that party’s performance.

England local elections:

Very limited polling has been done on the possible outcome of the local elections as only a third of local authorities across England are up for election. There was a poll at the start of May for London, however, as all local authorities in the city are facing the ballot box.

The Survation poll was as follows: LAB 42%, CON 26%, UKIP 14%, LDEM 14%

London, as with most metropolitan local authorities, tend to return much more favourable results for parties Left-of-centre. This is conversely true for Right-of-centre parties in most rural or suburban areas, so without a comparable poll of local voting intention in these geographies, it’s unwise to draw any concrete conclusions. It will make results night in the small hours of Friday all the most interesting, however, with the key questions being:

Will UKIP secure control of their first local authority? Will the Lib Dems fall to their lowest number of Local Councillors since the foundation of the party? And will the Labour and Conservative Parties put in a better showing locally if they are to be pipped by UKIP in the EU elections?

With one year to go until the General Election, parties on all sides will be biting their knuckle.

Polling Station” by secretlondon123 is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.