With the election less than six weeks away, Cicero Elections was delighted to host a roundtable discussion analysing May’s highly unpredictable election through an analytical lens and through the eyes of the media.
Cicero was joined by Dr Chris Hanretty and Dr Nick Vivyan, two of the brains behind the www.electionforecast.co.uk website, and Craig Woodhouse, Political Correspondent at The Sun.
The event allowed the Election Forecast team to outline their predictions ahead of the next election and to explain the complex methodology backing this up. As of 27 March, the team is predicting a narrow lead for the Conservatives (with 283 seats), compared with 280 seats for Labour and 38 seats for the Scottish National Party. Under the team’s predictions, the Liberal Democrats are predicted to retain around 26 of their seats, while UKIP and the Green Party are projected to win just one seat each.
Chaired by Cicero Group’s Executive Director Tom Frackowiak, the roundtable also discussed the immediate aftermath of the first TV debate between David Cameron and Ed Miliband, the effect that both traditional channels and social media will have on campaigning, and the impact that the Fixed Term Parliament Act could have with regards to forming the next government – or possibly requiring a second election in 2015.