• Big Two consolidate: In eight of the ten polls, the previously leading party has consolidated or increased their lead. However, rather than stripping support from each other, there are signs both parties are gaining their support from the smaller parties, with almost universal drops in support for the Lib Dems, Greens and UKIP.


  • UKIP’s unsurprising drop: UKIP will not be happy to see that their support has as much as halved since Ashcroft last polled many of these seats. But let’s put this in perspective: these are must-win marginals for the two main parties, who are pumping in resources and ground troops. Conversely, none of these seats is on UKIP’s target list. Farage is not trying to compete on the national stage with the wealthier parties, and this loss of support is the price for choosing a campaign that focuses on a small number of winnable seats.


  • Labour are winning the ground war: Labour has only overtaken in one seat that formerly showed a Conservative lead: Harrow East. In that seat, 73% of voters had been contacted by local Labour campaigning, as opposed to 61% by the Conservatives. Across the board, the Labour local campaigns are reaching more voters than the Conservatives and in a seat like Pendle, where the parties are currently neck-and-neck, this can and will make a difference on election day.


  • Respite for Nicky Morgan?: With Scotland polls showing Danny and Dougie Alexander both facing losses, Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough seat looked under threat in an October poll that showed Labour only 3% behind. That lead has now extended a further five points. However, Ashcroft polls only give party, not candidate names, and it will be interesting to see how voters react when they see the controversial Education Secretary on their ballot paper on 7th.


  • It is still very very close: In seven of these seats, the projected majority is 4% or less. Given there’s a 3% majority of error on polls such as this, these seats are going down to the wire and it’s these battles which will decide who is handed the keys to Downing Street next month.


Polling Station Belsize Park” by Matt Brown is licensed under CC BY 2.0.