SNP focus stretches south of Gretna

  “Stronger for Scotland” has become the dominant narrative in the General Election campaign in Scotland. For the last seven months, since the independence referendum of 2014, there has been an unstoppable expectation that May 7th will see arguably the biggest single change of political balance in history – at least in Scotland. For whilst …

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Cicero Elections Guide to how the next government may be formed

  The Cicero Elections team has produced a short, fun video explaining what may happen if no party wins an overall majority in this General Election. The bookies’ current odds give almost a 90% chance that there will be no majority government after 7th May. This video explains what will happen during the negotiation period between …

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Labour campaign still faces an uphill climb

  The polls aren’t moving. We’re over three weeks into the election campaign now. We’ve had manifestos, television debates, surprise policy announcements and the usual political rows. But none of it is actually making a real difference. The UK polling average at the start of April gave Labour 33% and the Conservatives 34%. The current …

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The city agenda: What’s in store in the next Parliament?

  Politicians and commentators discussing new policies often talk about which part of the electorate a certain measure benefits. Manifesto announcements are seen to appeal to pensioners, home owners, savers, small business owners, ethnic minorities or women. This is followed by data on how many voters are in that respective group, and how they could …

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London Hustings

  We’ve had the Leaders’ Debate, the Challengers’ Debate, two Scotland debates and countless televised interviews, but last night was the turn of Londoners to ask the questions. Gathered in a packed Guildhall were Natalie Bennett (Greens), Chuka Umunna (Lab) and Lynne Featherstone (Lib Dem), all standing in London, Grant Shapps (Con) standing in Hertfordshire …

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For want of a narrative?

  Looked at from a distance, this could have been an election that was quite straightforward for the Conservatives. The basic theory would be that if the economy was going quite strongly, an incumbent government should not really have too much trouble getting re-elected.  But the Tories are in trouble.  What’s happened? The economic fundamentals …

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