Cicero Elections closely follows the polling on the EU referendum. Here are the top lines to take from the most recent polling:
The number of times that Leave was in the lead increased significantly in April. Of the 23 independent polls conducted in April 2016, we have seen a rough 50/50 split in Leave and Remain taking the lead. This compares to a rough split of Remain leading in 70/30 of the polls over the last few months.
However, the frequency of Leave being recorded in the lead may have more to do with polling volatility rather than an actual change in results. This is because over the last three months (Feb-Apr) Remain has had a consistent 3% lead over Leave, even throughout April. What we are in fact seeing is more polls showing higher fluctuations in results for those saying Leave throughout April, meaning that this provides a more scattergun series of polls which shows Leave scoring slightly higher some polls and slightly lower in other polls compared to previous months. However, the average remains pretty much exactly the same as February – around 40.5% to Remain’s 43.5%. Given that pollsters like to caveat their results by saying the general margin of error is +/- 3%, these monthly averages are all the less clearcut.
This is showing that whilst individual pollsters are producing more jumpy results when taken individually, as a whole the picture is largely unchanged over the last three months. Remain’s support has held steady and Leave has done little to advance. The increasing volatility on the Leave side is interesting, but it is hard to give an exact cause. All it does is indicate that some fault-lines are just starting to shift, but it is hard to say in which direction a clear break in the polls might go.
Check out Cicero Election’s EU Referendum Tracker for the latest figures: http://ciceroelections.com/eu-referendum/