UKIP: The truly national party?

  Nigel Farage kicked off UKIP’s general election campaign with his first major speech of the year. High on rhetoric, low in substance, the content was still nonetheless revealing. Farage told the crowd gathered in Essex that UKIP was the only “truly national political party”. At quick glance such a statement is easy to dismiss …

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PMQs – Tax Evasion and the City

Well, that was enlightening. It was inevitable that Ed Miliband would go on HSBC, tax evasion, Tory donors and Lord Green. It was equally inevitable that David Cameron would shout until he was hoarse about Labour’s record on tackling evasion, Ed Balls tenure as City Minister and Labour’s reliance on trade union funding. On days …

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How much do polls shift in the last 90 days?

  Just under 90 days to go.  Do the polls give us any pointers from the past? There is an interesting exercise we can do.  Take the last 10 general elections, and take the polling averages for all the parties with just under 90 days to go to the final vote. In other words, take …

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Mr Gladstone’s ghost

  A minority left-of-centre government sustained by – but not in formal coalition with – a regional party? It’s not just a post May-2015 scenario.  We’ve been here before. History may have some interesting lessons for those who may find themselves round a negotiating table on May 8th. To start with, we have to go …

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Message Matters: What if the SNP wins dozens of seats?

  Looking back over the last half-century or so, from the 1960s until the summer of 2014, the popularity of nationalism in Scotland has been relatively static. When polled, between one-quarter and one-third of us consistently indicated that we wanted to be independent from the rest of the UK, with the rest of us wishing …

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PMQ’s – Brutal exchanges in the chamber

Today’s Parliamentary Questions was a lesson in how brutal these weekly sessions can be. Ed Miliband’s tactic was to ask why hedge funds were not paying stamp duty on stock market transactions until he received an answer. Labour knows Cameron won’t directly engage on shadow banking tax policy, thus leaving him exposed to accusations of …

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SNP on course to rock Westminster

  So we finally have that long awaited Ashcoft polling for Scotland. The SNP surge continues unabated. Coming just a day after the Conservatives unveil their plans for EVEL – its well named as it might just be that – English votes for English laws and after the Vow Plus from Labour. This will send Westminster politicians …

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